Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Update 5/5

My short Euro trade is going smashingly well thanks to the ongoing crisis in Europe. It has, in fact, gone so well that there is an increasing danger of the European Central Bank (possibly in combination with other central banks) intervening to support the Euro. Therefore I'm pulling out today at the close and an "selling" a copper, which has finally fallen thru the floor like I thought it would.

As for the European crisis, it just seems to keep on creeping back despite any and all attempts to stop the fungus from spreading. Portugese and Spanish debt continues to get hit hard, making it more and more expensive for these nations (and their banks) to borrow at reasonable rates. Bruce Krasting (who's blog is a must read) said this: "A few more days at the current pace would likely get us to the point where some central bank action may be required. It is equally possible that the global central banks will do nothing and the Euro makes a beeline to 1.10. That approach will end badly as well"

Despite repeated denials, this will not end until something very forceful is done to restore confidence. I honestly thought that Greece's aid package would be enough to calm the markets.. I was, so far, overly optimistic.

Update 7pm:

I "sold" the Euro at $1.3316; today's close was $1.2824, for a profit of $4,920.00.
I have now "sold" a copper contract at $3.1380; I'm putting a five cent stop loss on this.

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