Sunday, May 16, 2010
Despite the €750 billion bailout, the European stock markets continue to get hammered, as does their currency; the French stock market (CAC 40)was down 4.5% last Friday, a pretty stiff loss. There is a chance of an ugly crash in European stock markets by the end of next week as confidence simply has not returned to the markets. On the other hand, one good week and confidence would be restored; it could yet happen.. the DOW was down last Friday, but only a small loss. The Euro might just rally on it's own; it has fallen pretty hard of late, as have EU stock markets. I believe that US and ECB authorities will use whatever ammo they possess in their holsters to prevent a full on meltdown.. ie.. they'll print enough money and intervene in any market they choose to (whether this is within their authority or not) and this includes bond, stock and currency markets. I was kind of surprised ECB/Fed did not covertly support the CAC or the Euro last friday. Perhaps they don't have as much power as I think they do ?? We'll see.. in short, I have no idea what's brewing for next week; my initial hunch is of a rebound in both equities and currencies. Therefore, if the overnight markets are up, I will put in an order to "buy" the Euro at $1.24 or better with a goal of three cents and a stop loss of two cents.