Sunday, June 3, 2012

Beware the VIX

  There are several very big problems converging together right now-- Brazil's economy has now stalled. India as well, and they are having serious problems controlling runaway inflation. China's manufacturing index has gone negative. Here in the US, job creation has stopped cold in it's tracks. And in Europe, Spain's economic situation is deteriorating very quickly, so much so that a bailout is now being openly discussed this weekend. The cost of rescuing Spain's banks is now between $75-120 billion, and Spain itself cannot possibly borrow this amount on the open market without immediately causing a bond crisis. The problem is, nobody has enough money to bailout Spain. These will send Spain's Bonds plummeting-- unless the ECB quietly steps in, which it appeared to have done late last week. Bank runs in Spain are accelerating; the yield of the German, US and UK ten year bonds are at record lows as people and investors bail on Spain and stash their money into what they consider safe havens. Worst of all, the VIX-- a measurement of volatility and sometimes called the Fear Index, is creeping back up again, nearing 30. When the VIX rises above 40, something is going badly wrong. During the Lehman crisis it went above 80. Ambrose's article today warns that global lending has contracted at a rate since the Lehman Crisis. Unless something is done on a grand scale, I look for the VIX to top 40 again by week's end. For anybody looking to measure the danger level in real time, here's a link to the VIX measurement: http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/DQBeta.aspx?content=http%3A%2F%2Fdelayedquotes.cboe.com%2Fnew%2Findices%2Fquote.html%3FASSET_CLASS%3DIND%26ID_NOTATION%3D8941863

 Late last week I was convinced Bernanke would pursue another round of QE, but after a closer look, I'm not convinced reducing the interest rate on the US Ten Year from a record low of 1.45% to something under 1.2% would so much good. There is talk of the IMF stepping in to help Spain, and Bernanke himself could do so as well-- but doing either of these will be relentlessly attacked by the Republican opposition as a bailout of Spain instead of California. Look out for deflation and the continued sinking of commodities. For all who read this, if you see gas sink below $3.00/gal you should be afraid-- very afraid. Bernanke and the Fed meet again in a couple weeks; if the deflation train continues, I guarantee he'll so something. The problem is, we are now nearing what some call the Keynesian End Point and I fear that he has few options that will accomplish anything meaningful. 

132 comments:

  1. Sorry I have not been keeping up with your blog. This is some scary stuff backed up by what GAW has been telling us that those who believed we would muddle through, are now reconsidering that position. Please keep me posted in the comment section if the VIX does move up as you fear it will. All this is starting to get me nervous indeed. Thanks for all your hard work and comments on my blog. Your content is always appreciated and there are a lot of blogs that I don't even bother with. Yours is not one of them.

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  2. What I mean by not keeping up is leaving a comment. I read every one.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Agreed that things do seem to be coming to a head.

    Regarding gas approaching $3.00/gallon, here in the Pacific NW we are paying over $4.00/gallon and nobody in this area knows what the hell the media is talking about when they say gas prices are dropping.

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  4. But there are no solutions except to take the bitter pill of deleveraging/deflation, as that means the bad credit must be written down/off. Until that happens, and Bond holders take the 99% plus loss that they should have taken in the first place ('08), there will be no end to this crisis.

    Political idiocy only delays the inevitable, and you end up like Japan, 28 years of deflation, accompanied by massive printing of currency, that achieves nothing in the end, except it creates a bigger mountain of debt that will be defaulted upon, causing a bigger crash.

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  5. Here in Canada, gas was over 1.30/litre, or $5.20 a US gallon - and life goes on. The roads are still full of pickups and SUVs, and no one even talks about the price of gas.

    Americans like to talk about how high gas prices are so bad for the economy - yet in Norway, gas is $10/gal US, and they are ranked as one of the world's strongest economies.

    Get over it already. Buy a smaller car, and stop complaining.

    Toyota Prius gets 81mpg in the city, 76 mpg on the highway... and burns 0 fuel below 40 mph = if you figure the fuel savings over the life of the car, it's a no brainer.

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  6. GAW I just drive less. It works for me. I could never save enough in mpg to cover the cost of a new car.

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  7. Mr. K the hive comes through again!! I have a following because so many left Mish to follow me, Shaza, GAW and Mugabe too. Now we have Mammoth and Bukko as regulars and of course CL and her real life stories that I love. I email with Shaza, CL and Mammoth almost daily

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  8. Mr. K--I read your column and encourage others to do so as well. Some are not into 'comments' but have said they enjoy your informative, "just the facts, ma'am" attitude.

    We found far fewer cars on the road during the past week when we were out of state. Gas was $3.53 where we were. Boats abound. How people can fill cars AND boats, I do not know. I think the real 'tell' will be during July and August when vacation season is in full swing. We saw lots of JUNK at very high prices.

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