Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Predictions for 2011: Tap Dancing in The Minefields

1. There Will Be No Recovery in the US: As a nation, we will borrow about $1.8 trillion at all government levels (Federal, State and Local), of which roughly half will be by way of money printing. Simply put, the answer to a problem of debt is not more of it. One day soon enough we will have to live within our means.. and we will not do it voluntarily but at the point of a bond market's spear like Greece. The American people will begin to understand in 2011 that the only recovery thats happening is on Wall Street. Look for the U6 measurement of unemployment to stay above it's current 17%.

2. Muni Bond Implosions: With the end of the Build America Bonds program.. which was an important financial tool for local governments.. and the election of a Republican House, it seems that pretty much all Federal aid to state and local governments will end. With this, look for states to balance their budgets by cuts to local governments. I think dozens of cities and counties will bite the dust financially this year, either with a formal declaration of bankruptcy or by simply falling dramatically behind on their bills. California, Illinois, Michigan, Florida, Nevada and New Jersey cities and counties look particularly vulnerable. Look for Obama to try.. but fail.. to throw them a lifeline. Bernanke may also begin purchasing Muni's. Muni's will lay off at least 200,000 employees. These failures will shake ordinary Americans.

3. Euro Crisis v2.0.. the Spanish Flu: The EU/ECB/IMF plans to deal with the cascade of bad debts, overleveraged banks and overindebted governments is suspect. The EU's central bank, the European Central Bank, has essentially reached the limits of what it can do. Look for Spain, which needs to borrow $400 billion this year.. much of it in the first quarter.. to hit the wall and need to be bailed out. Belgium and Portugal are also in trouble. I forsee the EU/IMF fumbling the ball and asking Bernanke for a backstop, which I believe he will do.. and will catch holy hell back in Wash DC, but I do think the financial system will not crumble. If this one is mishandled, it could be exceedingly dangerous very quickly. In general, the economic conditions in Europe scare the bejesus out of me. The EuroBond is one possible and real answer, but I doubt Germany will agree to essentially co-sign all of Southern Europe's debts.

4. QE 3.0.. the MBS Edition: I look for Bernanke to begin purchases of MBS in fall; look for it to be in the neighborhood of $500 billion. The state of the US housing market will become dire by mid summer, threatening the health of many big banks.

5. Stock Markets: I don't see a lot changing.. the Dow will continue to be stuck in neutral, bouncing between 10,000 and 12,000. Many thanks will be sent to Ben Bernanke for keeping this casino open.. and sadly, that is what the NYSE has become.

6. US Gov't Bonds: I forsee the US Ten Year Bond, which today is at 3.35%, to touch 4.5% at some point in 2011. If the crisis in Europe plays out as I suspect (or some other crisis abroad) or there is a sharp stock market correction here, look for the yield to go below 2.75% again.

7. Commodities: I believe commodities will have an up year as the economic surge in Asia continues. If the Euro Crisis is serious enough, it could bring commodities downward as the US Dollar surges. Look for crude to hit $100, silver to hit $35 and wheat to hit $8.50 again. Americans will grumble loudly as gasoline approaches $3.50/gal and grocery bills are higher, due in large part to Mr.Bernanke's printing presses.

8. Beware of Black Swans: The world is a complex and dangerous place and has an exceedingly fragile economic system. One good shove will likely be enough to send the world's economy over the edge. A new Korean War, a war with Iran, a revolution in Greece or even an angry Mother Earth might be enough to send us all into an economic apocalypse thanks to the monstrous debt levels and credit default swaps. In 2002, the world's total debt was $60 trillion. This year, that amount reached $188 trillion, nevermind the hundreds of trillions more in credit default swaps. As I have always said, one day this will end very badly and very quickly.. but I doubt 2011 will be the year.

17 comments:

  1. 1) agree
    2) problems yes, but it will be mostly duck taped over (yes...more kicking the can)
    3) Germany will fold to the will of the bankers
    4) Yep, BB will be buying munis
    5) Yep, Stock market is the Maginot line to the PTB. They'll pour all resources into defending it
    6) Agree...slow rise
    7) agree, all that easy fed money has to go somewhere
    8) agree...beware. We're are thin ice.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good predictions - let's see how these look a year from today.

    However, conspicuous by its absence here is your figures for Gold and thwe reasoning behind these numbers:
    - 2011 High?
    - 2011 Low?
    - Price in $ at end of 2011?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gold should hit $1500 with the possibility of $1600 if there is a serious crisis.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Shit. Gold $1500-1600 what's the fucking diff? Gold going to $2000+. And silver will be $35 before the Groundhog Day. jmho

    ReplyDelete
  5. Pretty negative view here. Wish I could be the one to disagree, but I can't.

    ReplyDelete
  6. what can you expect from a country that just prints unbacked money as they need it ?? they HAVE it coming..

    ReplyDelete
  7. aren't you forgetting about a majour crisis in Japan (250% debt/GDP) ?

    ReplyDelete
  8. I found you through a comment on Gonzalo Lira's blog. Nice blog you have. I have clicked "favorite."

    I like predictions.

    Thank you and good luck,
    Tess from Kansas

    ReplyDelete
  9. The Black Swan of Japan arrived - unfortunatly.

    Looks like $1500 gold is just around the corner.

    Tess of Kansas.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Why people still make use of to read news papers when in this technological globe everything is presented on web?



    Here is my site - slow carb

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks for your marvelous posting! I certainly enjoyed reading it,
    you will be a great author.I will make certain to bookmark your blog and may come back at some point.

    I want to encourage you to definitely continue your great job,
    have a nice evening!

    My web page ... lose weight with HCG

    ReplyDelete
  12. Tom A Wolvos I agree, I mean, we have been able to clear up Acne Killer.
    Cliffy may get to experiment, to make it less obvious, better looking.


    Feel free to visit my homepage - the acne killer

    ReplyDelete