Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Update 4/27

Just when I began to feel bullish and confident, the bottom falls out. I went from smugly confident five days ago to nervous fear today. I'm going to exit all of my ETF positions today at close. I'm going to "sell" one Euro contract at today's close with a two cent stop loss.

The problem was that speculators are (again) attacking Greece, not that it matters; Greece has for a week at least been effectively unable to borrow money. But ominously, the speculators hit Portugal hard today, sending the rate on their ten year bonds from 4.19% at the beginning of April to today's 5.67%.. a brutal curve. Portugal today is where Greece was 2-3 weeks ago. “We have gone past the point of no return,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.“There is a complete loss of confidence. The bond markets are in disintegration and it is getting worse every day". Mr.Cailloux today called for the ECB to do what Bernanke did during the Lehman crisis, namely print money out of thin air and use it to purchase EU government bonds, Greek & Portugese in particular. The Germans won't like this one bit, nor should they as this (should) result in a weaker Euro and higher prices in all of Europe as a result. After seeing how the Europeans (mis)handled the Greek fiasco, I have absolutely no confidence that the Portugese fiasco will be handled with anything but clumsiness and incompetence. Portugal's government today began the circus at market's close in Europe: The Portuguese government angrily denounced an "attack from the markets" on Tuesday after its credit rating was downgraded and rejected any comparison to the debt crisis in Greece.
"It is a decisive moment. The country must respond to this attack from the markets," Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said in a statement.

Perhaps it's just me, but if this is not handled forcefully and quickly, the European bond markets could face a meltdown, with very serious consequences for Europe's banking system and currencies (yes the sterling). Today's market actions left me with a very uneasy feeling.

Update 6pm:

"Sold" one Euro contract at $1.3316

Bought 100x YCS @ 21.64... sold @ 21.22.. loss of $42.
Bought 100x IDX @ 71.75.... sold @ 72.48.. gain of $73.
Bought 100x GXG @ 32.40.. sold @ 32.50.. gain of $10.
Bought 100x EPU @ 34.75... sold @ 34.25.. loss of $50.
Bought 100x VNM @ 25.75.. sold @ 26.11.. gain of $36.
Net Gain: $27

I bought a box of bad chicken last week, so we'll call it even.

No comments:

Post a Comment