Thursday, February 25, 2010

Update/Comments 2/25

Bad day: I "sold" a copper at $3.17, it went down another cent or so, then rocketed back upwards, passing the $3.22 mark at some point.. so, in and out a couple hours later for a loss of $1,250. I'm going to keep my "sell" order at $3.10. Worse, I missed my monthly goal at my real world job today. A few shots of Beefeaters Cure All always helps me in these trying times.

On to Greece: the EU and IMF did an inspection on Greece's finances and released a report today: "joint report drafted by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank finds that the calculations contained in Greece's budget plan falls €4.8 billion short of what is needed to meet its deficit cutting objective this year". Interest rates on Greek debt skyrocketed as speculators piled onto the ailing patient. Moody's jumped onto the pile as well, threatening to cut Greece's bond rating to a point where it's not investment grade. So Greece, already suffering under crippling strikes {which in and of themselves cause economic losses}, will have to announce even deeper cuts. At some point, this becomes a political decision for Athens, and the choices are very grim:

1. Endure years of grinding depression from an IMF bailout, or..
2. Endure years of grinding depression from a default.

If the protests and public opinion become bitter enough, option two is a very real possibility; this would be a disaster for EU (especially Greek) banks. Then we come to the credit default swaps written on Greek government debt and banks. Overall, this could be a big fat Greek $500bln sh!tbomb if mishandled. My guess.. the IMF steps in around the Ides of April.

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