Saturday, February 20, 2010

Update/Comments 2/20

Copper went up for most of the last week; now at $3.35. With Bernanke raising rates, the USD will strengthen and so this is obviously not a big factor. Copper appears to be moving in conjunction with the stock market, fundamentals be damned. I can't see this continuing for long; I still think we have a ways down, perhaps eventually hitting the $2.00 mark at some point this year. I'm going to adjust my order and "sell" only one copper at $3.17 with another at $3.00, with both again having five cent stops. I'll also put in an order to "buy" copper at $3.46, again with a five cent stop loss.. and a modest goal of five cents. I refuse to believe this is going to the moon with fundamentals like these, but fighting trends is usually a one way ticket to serfdom.

I personally think Bernanke's decision to raise rates was a tad premature; there was a report out this week that showed bank loans in the US were down $100bln since this year began, a 16% reduction month on month, a record. Wall St did'nt seem to mind.. the DOW actually went up on a day when it was supposed to go down.

The Greek tragedy also seems to have simply stopped; a few budget slashes in Greece and lots of hot air from Athens and the EU in Brussels seem to have done the trick (thru last week at least). The Greeks have announced a $5bln bond auction sometime soon.. I can't find the link or exact date.. lets see how the markets like this issuance; it could be a staged event in that the big EU countries will buy the bonds to give the impression of stability and thus lower interest rates in recognition of their progress so far. The EU is also going to do another review in the middle of March to look at Greece's progress and then probably begin a step by step forgiveness of Greek debt. I think the markets are in a holding pattern until more news emerges, which surprises me. Greece may yet make it thru this year, though next year is a different matter entirely. I thought speculators would be a tad more aggressive than this and force the issue, especially in light of the strikes which are beginning to further damage Greece's economy. One reaction to this mess has been that the governments of Greece & Spain have sent their intelligence services to find information on the identities of these evil speculators. Let me be of assistance: Goldman Sachs & John Paulson. Yes, the very same Goldman Sachs that helped Greece hide $50bln of debt from view were busy piling shorts onto their clients. Early word is that JP Morgan has done the same service for Italy.

No comments:

Post a Comment