Friday, November 20, 2009

Update 11/20

My OCMGX wound up at 24.28 today, up from 23.81 last week, for a gain of $145, bringing my total to $10,367. For at least two days this week (including today) the USDX went up, which should've made gold go lower. Instead it went up, which to me is a sign of gold's bullish intentions and a basic theory that the USD might rise or sink versus other currencies, but as so many of them are being printed, the USD is sinking in relation to commodities, gold in particular. So for
the meantime, I'm sticking by my OCMGX.. more or less. I'm going to remove $4,000 and move into the commodities market, "buying" a Dec 09 copper contract at today's close price of $3.107. This is a contract for 25,000 lb of copper.. for every cent the price goes up, I'll make $250.. and for every cent it goes down.. well, we won't talk about that. I've got a trailing stop on it of three cents; I will exit this if copper hits 3.20 or at the end of next week, whichever comes first.

I'm beginning to think that a market pullback is coming, and with this would be a rising USD. Next week will be very telling; I'm going to keep on my toes and see if there is a clear diretion. The deflation bug seems to be in the air.

Nothing dramatic happened this week; the housing market came out with some fugly numbers, but still the markets rallied. At some point, if the fundamentals on the ground don't begin to improve, the stock markets will need to come back down. Lets hope this is the beginning of a recovery and that the fundamentals out here in Hooverville begin to get better.

Meredith Whitney came out this week and said that since the stock market highs last year, there has been $1.5 trillion of available credit removed from the consumers, and she went on to say that another $1.2 trillion more will evaporate. This has, and will, continue to hamper consumer spending.

Something wierd happened last nite on the ICE exchange overnight markets.. there was a huge buy order on the USDX that would've sent the USDX from 76.5 to over 80.. a pretty dramatic move. The ICE exchange decided to simply void the order.. some 4,000 contracts. Apparently this happened earlier this month as well, that time to the tune of 8,000 contracts:

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