Saturday, March 27, 2010

Update 3/26

I'm now out of both the GBP and Yen trades:
The day's close on the GBP was $1.4886, for a loss of $234.
The day's close on my Yen ETF was 20.99, for a gain of $48.
I've still got the "sell" order on copper @ $3.17

I don't have a real strong sense of where these are going anymore and so I'm glad I'm out of them. There are so many factors that affect these markets. Over the next few months, there are two major events upcoming:

1: In the US, The Fed is ending MBS and Bond purchases this month; there have already been two ugly bond auctions this week, with the interest rate on the 10yr bond going north of 3.9% (up from 3.65% last month), a bad portend for the US Gov't as it needs to borrow money in such staggering amounts. The ten year and thirty year auctions are next week.. could be interesting. Mauldin thinks the 10yr could reach 4.5% by mid May. This is a trajectory that Bernanke simply will not allow. If he does jump in and begin Bond purchases again, look for the USD to tank.

2: Greece is going to need a lot of money to make it thru the end of the year. The new IMF/EU agreement essentially is that Greece (or any other problem child) must first go to the IMF for their bailout, and if any more funds are needed, the EU (if there is a unanimous vote) might provide some funds. This isn't much of a guarantee. Greece will almost certainly have to go to the IMF this spring; the IMF can only provide them $15 billion (and impose stiff budget cuts). What happens after that money is burned thru this autumn is what's key, because Greece will almost certainly need more money to get thru year's end. If the EU stumbles and dithers as they have so far, Greece would be left with little choice other than default. The euro would take a severe hit from such an event.

2a: If Greece were abandoned by their EU brethren, I believe Bernanke would step up and rescue Greece. A severe drop in the Euro would produce deflation here in the US, another scenario Bernanke will simply not allow.

That or.. none of these events come to pass and everything is simply divine..
We shall see. Count me in for #2 and 2a at the very least this year.

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